CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 30/12 - 06Z WED 31/12 2003
ISSUED: 29/12 20:15Z
FORECASTER: HAKLANDER

General thunderstorms are forecast across the Norwegian west coast and almost the entire Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

From the Atlantic, a W-to-NWLY jetstream at 300 hPa bifurcates across Ireland, with a weaker NLY branch (40-80 kts) across the North Sea towards the Baltic States and a stronger (100+ kts) SLY branch across ERN Spain and NRN Libia towards the ERN Mediterranean. The axis of a longwave upper trough slowly drifts EWD from the Tyrrhenean to the Adriatic Sea.

DISCUSSION

...Mediterranean...
Low MUCAPE of at most a few hundred J/kg with hardly any convective inhibition will likely result in some scattered thunderstorm activity. No strong low-level or deep-layer shear is forecast across the low MUCAPE area, so convective activity is not expected to become severe.

...Norwegian west coast...
With relatively cold upper levels in a polar air mass and relatively warm and moist conditions near the surface, low CAPE will probably yield a few lightning strikes.

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